Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 4.589277 5.443250 6.389798 7.513621 8.808216 10.249362 11.971566
2025-05-11 3.232268 4.355322 5.740592 7.560047 9.870065 12.686856 16.360966
2025-05-18 2.298216 3.466977 5.049416 7.314124 10.430951 14.522691 20.243778
2025-05-25 1.661954 2.778199 4.421114 6.956144 10.695107 15.918309 23.653782
2025-06-01 1.291614 2.366939 4.070729 6.876861 11.266852 17.727048 27.759734
2025-06-08 1.022659 2.042099 3.771063 6.792247 11.773996 19.448668 31.870142
2025-06-15 0.893821 1.922200 3.770625 7.165381 13.012846 22.365883 38.019819
2025-06-22 0.744803 1.726584 3.596939 7.205092 13.690519 24.446881 43.036265
2025-06-29 0.621519 1.549995 3.420682 7.202091 14.276201 26.410908 48.011554
2025-07-06 0.519747 1.392340 3.248469 7.171995 14.794946 28.290514 52.983078
2025-07-13 0.491671 1.393431 3.394476 7.772665 16.528243 32.404088 62.058811
2025-07-20 0.437961 1.320002 3.369039 8.021053 17.614330 35.453693 69.507229
2025-07-27 0.392530 1.259223 3.367371 8.332684 18.886458 39.002247 78.219993
2025-08-03 0.333558 1.146988 3.228445 8.331229 19.537410 41.469349 85.200200
2025-08-10 0.269764 1.001478 2.980251 8.045372 19.563642 42.746894 90.079587
2025-08-17 0.213201 0.858133 2.705667 7.649872 19.299963 43.421947 93.855248
2025-08-24 0.178900 0.774172 2.568684 7.561536 19.694222 45.434528 100.355188
2025-08-31 0.150187 0.698925 2.438996 7.468791 20.062837 47.417479 106.931696
2025-09-07 0.140272 0.689458 2.497781 7.874126 21.634200 52.036958 119.123261
2025-09-14 0.121850 0.640131 2.425964 7.917183 22.341660 54.862227 127.822316
2025-09-21 0.105005 0.590552 2.342334 7.913887 22.933455 57.479024 136.259840
2025-09-28 0.090031 0.542748 2.253530 7.881171 23.446088 59.957014 144.564646
2025-10-05 0.089230 0.560626 2.391364 8.533649 25.777549 66.690523 162.380431